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Probability of Success

Get a View into Your Financial Future

The probability of success is a Monte Carlo simulation that runs your scenario 5,000 through historical averages. The idea is to check and see if you run out of money during retirement by looking at the information through a simulation process. You are considered good is the chance of not running out of money is greater than 90%.

Retirement Portfolio

Estimated Balance as of 2017

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Cash

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Bonds

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Stocks

Net Retirement Income

Estimated Balance as of 2017

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Income

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Expenses

Results of Monte Carlo Simulation (5,000 Simulations)

This retirement monte carlo simulation based on past data from the Standard and Poor historical averages (Average Stocks Return), the 10 Year Treasury Bond (Average Bonds Return), 3 month T-Bill (Average Cash Return), and US inflation. For each year of each simulation event, a random return and inflation amount is chosen.

The percentage on the right shows the percent of simulations that did not run out of money before your life expectancy (80). For example, a 90% probability of success means that only 10% of the simulations did you actually run out of money before the age of 80. You want to be above 80% probability; above 90% is ideal.

The chart below will give you this percentage throughout your entire retirement.

Probability of Success

Simulation Success Probability

Specific Simulations

Ending Porfolio Values at

 Portfolio Values in the 90th Percentile (Optimistic):

 Portfolio Values in the 50th Percentile (Median):

 Portfolio Values in the 10th Percentile (Pesimistic):